About U-Index
This page explains the Umanity speed index (U-Index).
You can see the U-Index for Graded races races simply by registering as a
member (free).
If you join the
Umanity VIP Club, you can then view the index for all races.
What is the U-Index?
It is a numeric indicator of the abilities of the racehorses.
The higher the U-Index, the better the horse and the more likely it is to win a race.
Quantifying something like a horse’s ability, which cannot be seen, makes it simpler to compare one horse against another.
Reliability of the U-Index
performance values of the U-Index are accurate.
The table below is a compilation of the finish order of races from 2008 to 2015, broken down by the ranking of the U-Index.
- Average finish order by U-Index ranking (for about 3,000 races/year for which the U-Index could be calculated)
U-Index |
Average Place |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
1st |
4.2 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
2nd |
4.8 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
3rd |
5.5 |
5.6 |
5.5 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
5.7 |
5.7 |
4th |
6.2 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
5.9 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
5th |
6.6 |
6.6 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.6 |
6.5 |
6.6 |
6.5 |
6th |
7.1 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
6.8 |
6.9 |
7.0 |
7.1 |
7.0 |
7th |
7.4 |
7.5 |
7.4 |
7.4 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
7th |
7.8 |
7.9 |
7.9 |
7.8 |
8.0 |
7.8 |
7.9 |
7.8 |
9th |
8.4 |
8.5 |
8.4 |
8.2 |
8.4 |
8.3 |
8.4 |
8.4 |
10th |
8.9 |
9.0 |
8.8 |
8.8 |
8.7 |
8.9 |
8.8 |
8.8 |
11th |
9.5 |
9.3 |
9.5 |
9.3 |
9.5 |
9.3 |
9.5 |
9.5 |
12th |
10.0 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
10.1 |
9.9 |
9.9 |
9.8 |
9.8 |
13th |
10.4 |
10.6 |
10.5 |
10.6 |
10.4 |
10.6 |
10.4 |
10.6 |
14th |
11.2 |
11.2 |
11.0 |
11.2 |
11.3 |
11.3 |
11.0 |
11.1 |
15th |
11.8 |
11.8 |
11.7 |
11.7 |
11.6 |
12.0 |
11.8 |
11.7 |
16th |
12.3 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
12.4 |
12.4 |
12.6 |
12.6 |
12.4 |
17th |
13.0 |
13.4 |
13.2 |
13.3 |
12.9 |
13.4 |
12.8 |
13.0 |
18th |
13.3 |
13.8 |
13.8 |
13.5 |
13.8 |
14.2 |
13.9 |
13.3 |
I think you can see that the higher the U-Index ranking, the better the horses' finishing record in the races.
Conversely, it's worth noting that when the U-Index ranking is lower, the average finish order also drops accordingly.
This shows that the U-Index evaluations of horse's abilities are accurate.
Betting Ticket Simulations using the U-Index
Here we are doing a simulation to see what the results would be if you bought tickets to win for the horse with the highest U-Index in all the races from 2008 to 2015.
- Results when betting #1 U-Index ranked horse to win (for about 3,000 races/year for which the U-Index could be calculated)
|
Number of Races |
Number of Hits |
Hit Rate |
Average Payoff |
Return Rate |
2008 |
3179 |
820 |
25.8% |
327JPY |
84.3% |
2009 |
3176 |
824 |
25.9% |
317JPY |
82.3% |
2010 |
3178 |
837 |
26.3% |
342JPY |
90.2% |
2011 |
3180 |
819 |
25.8% |
327JPY |
84.3% |
2012 |
3155 |
808 |
25.6% |
340JPY |
87.1% |
2013 |
3164 |
853 |
27.0% |
340JPY |
91.6% |
2014 |
3160 |
788 |
24.9% |
340JPY |
84.9% |
2015 |
3158 |
796 |
25.2% |
354JPY |
89.4% |
Total |
25350 |
6545 |
25.8% |
336JPY |
86.8% |
You can see that the hit rate for wins was solid every year at about 26%.
The rate of return was just under 90%, but this shows that it is difficult to win at the races when continuing to buy mechanically, always using the same amount.
Please refer to "Skillful Use of the U-Index" explained below and devise a buying strategy in which you adjust the amount you bet on each race.
Predicted U-Index & Results U-Index
There are 2 U-Indexes, the predicted U-Index, which is calculated prior to the post time of a race and the results U-Index, which is calculated after the race.
The predicted U-Index is calculated from the horse’s racing record to date along with the current race conditions. The results U-Index is calculated based solely on the current race.
U-Index Calculation Methods
The U-Index is calculated based on the running time of a race along with several other factors.
The results U-Index is calculated based on past racing results, then the current race conditions are factored in and the predicted U-Index is calculated.
Note that the U-Index is not shown for horses that do not have a track record at JRA races, such as maiden horses or invited horses.
Potent Race Condition Factors
The tables below are compilations of the average finish orders from 2008 to 2015 with breakdowns by course condition, distance and racetrack.
Because the calculation of the U-Index is based on speed performance, a more precise prediction can be made by culling by factors like the course and distance, which readily show the abilities of horses entered in a race.
- Track/Distance
U-Index |
Average Place |
Turf |
Dirt |
Hurdle |
1st |
4.4 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
2nd |
5.2 |
4.8 |
4.6 |
3rd |
5.8 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
4th |
6.2 |
5.9 |
6.0 |
5th |
6.6 |
6.5 |
6.1 |
U-Index |
Average Place |
-1600m |
1700-2200m |
2300m- |
1st |
4.2 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
2nd |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
3rd |
5.7 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
4th |
6.1 |
5.9 |
6.1 |
5th |
6.7 |
6.4 |
6.3 |
- Venue
U-Index |
Venue |
Sapporo |
Hakodate |
Fukushima |
Niigata |
Tokyo |
Nakayama |
Chukyo |
Kyoto |
Hanshin |
Kokura |
1st |
4.0 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
4.2 |
4.1 |
2nd |
4.6 |
4.7 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
3rd |
5.3 |
5.0 |
5.7 |
5.6 |
5.7 |
5.6 |
5.8 |
5.5 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
4th |
5.8 |
5.6 |
6.1 |
6.1 |
6.1 |
6.0 |
6.2 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
6.1 |
5th |
6.2 |
6.2 |
6.6 |
6.6 |
6.6 |
6.5 |
6.8 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
6.7 |
Viewing the U-Index by Horse Age & Class
The value of the U-Index number varies according to a horse's age and class.
For the sake of argument, take a horse that has a U-Index of 90.0, if the horse is a two-year-old, it is rated as a high-performer likely to win in a GI race, but if it is an older horse, it is rated as a run-of-the-mill horse that is likely to barely win in a 10 million yen stakes race.
The table below shows the average U-Index of standard horses entered in each class and the average U-Index of winning horses in each class. (for the about 3,000 races/year for which the U-Index could be calculated)
If you refer to this table, you can get a rough grasp of the performance level of horses that ran in those races.
- 2yo
Class |
Average of Predicted U-Index |
Entry Horse |
Winning Horse |
G1 |
84.4 |
86.3 |
G2 |
80.5 |
81.6 |
G3 |
79.5 |
82.2 |
OPEN |
72.4 |
79.1 |
Allow1 |
- |
- |
Allow2 |
- |
- |
Allow3 |
77.3 |
81.7 |
Maiden |
55.3 |
70.5 |
- 3yo
Class |
Average of Predicted U-Index |
Entry Horse |
Winning Horse |
G1 |
90.4 |
93.2 |
G2 |
86.5 |
90.5 |
G3 |
83.9 |
87.7 |
OPEN |
83.2 |
86.9 |
Allow1 |
- |
- |
Allow2 |
- |
- |
Allow3 |
76.0 |
83.7 |
Maiden |
57.2 |
75.7 |
- 4yo&up
Class |
Average of Predicted U-Index |
Entry Horse |
Winning Horse |
G1 |
99.4 |
101.8 |
G2 |
97.9 |
99.6 |
G3 |
97.3 |
99.1 |
OPEN |
95.7 |
99.1 |
Allow1 |
90.9 |
94.3 |
Allow2 |
85.3 |
90.6 |
Allow3 |
75.7 |
85.3 |
Maiden |
- |
- |
Skillful Use of the U-Index
As the U-Index represents the very performance of the horses, if there is a big difference in the U-Index between the number 1 and 2 horses, for example, then it's fair to say the number 1 horse has an excellent chance of winning.
If you make your bets around these horses, then you can look for horses to place and show.
Conversely, if there isn't much of a gap in the U-Index of the top horses, then the chance of an upset by a horse with a lower U-Index is high.
If some horse is being pushed as the decisive number 1 in such a race, then it's good to be a bit leery of it.
If you take other factors into account, such as performance that cannot be measured by the U-Index alone, it gives greater depth to race predictions.
For example, if you think of how a race develops, the jockey, lineage, etc., then suddenly you get closer to hitting it.
etc., then suddenly you get closer to hitting it.
So, let's try making actual predictions using the U-Index.
The table below shows the U-Index from the 11th race of the Hanshin Kobe Newspaper Cup, held on September 27th, 2015.
The race was one where you could relatively easily pick a winning ticket by looking at the U-Index.
- 27 Sep 2015 KOBE SHIMBUN HAI G2
Race Prediction
In this race the top 2 horses are head and shoulders above the field. Just from this difference in the U-Index, you can surmise the likelihood of an upset is low. I would want to center my betting combinations on Lia Fail and Real Steel and limit myself to the top U-Index horses Tosen Basil, Baigaeshi, Jun Super Hikaru, Albert Dock.
Although Kilohana is recommended as a popular horse, it has just returned from a long break, and its U-Index puts it at the bottom. Don't put too much store by this.
Horse Name |
U-Index |
Lia Fail |
98.6 |
Real Steel |
97.4 |
Tosen Basil |
93.7 |
Baigaeshi |
93.4 |
Jun Super Hikaru |
93.3 |
Albert Dock |
92.5 |
Tir Na Nog |
91.9 |
Massabielle |
91.2 |
Tagano Espresso |
90.7 |
Sunrise Scence |
90.4 |
Red Artista |
89.6 |
Zenno Bremen |
88.2 |
Red Solomon |
88.0 |
Saratoga Spirit |
87.5 |
Kilohana |
83.6 |
- Result
Place |
Horse Name |
U-Index |
Odds |
1st |
Lia Fail |
98.6 |
8.0 |
2nd |
Real Steel |
97.4 |
1.9 |
3rd |
Tosen Basil |
93.7 |
21.5 |
4th |
Baigaeshi |
93.4 |
24.7 |
5th |
Jun Super Hikaru |
93.3 |
149.6 |
6th |
Red Solomon |
88.0 |
35.9 |
7th |
Albert Dock |
92.5 |
9.0 |
8th |
Tagano Espresso |
90.7 |
89.2 |
9th |
Sunrise Scence |
90.4 |
38.2 |
10th |
Saratoga Spirit |
87.5 |
56.3 |
11th |
Tir Na Nog |
91.9 |
19.3 |
12th |
Red Artista |
89.6 |
80.4 |
13th |
Massabielle |
91.2 |
6.6 |
14th |
Kilohana |
83.6 |
10.2 |
15th |
Zenno Bremen |
88.2 |
274.8 |