About U-Index

This page explains the Umanity speed index (U-Index).
You can see the U-Index for Graded races races simply by registering as a member (free).
If you join the Umanity VIP Club, you can then view the index for all races.

What is the U-Index?

It is a numeric indicator of the abilities of the racehorses.
The higher the U-Index, the better the horse and the more likely it is to win a race.
Quantifying something like a horse’s ability, which cannot be seen, makes it simpler to compare one horse against another.

Reliability of the U-Index

performance values of the U-Index are accurate.
The table below is a compilation of the finish order of races from 2008 to 2015, broken down by the ranking of the U-Index.
- Average finish order by U-Index ranking (for about 3,000 races/year for which the U-Index could be calculated)
U-Index Average Place
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
1st 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1
2nd 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
3rd 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7
4th 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
5th 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.5
6th 7.1 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.1 7.0
7th 7.4 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.5
7th 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.9 7.8
9th 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.2 8.4 8.3 8.4 8.4
10th 8.9 9.0 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.8
11th 9.5 9.3 9.5 9.3 9.5 9.3 9.5 9.5
12th 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.1 9.9 9.9 9.8 9.8
13th 10.4 10.6 10.5 10.6 10.4 10.6 10.4 10.6
14th 11.2 11.2 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.0 11.1
15th 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.6 12.0 11.8 11.7
16th 12.3 12.5 12.5 12.4 12.4 12.6 12.6 12.4
17th 13.0 13.4 13.2 13.3 12.9 13.4 12.8 13.0
18th 13.3 13.8 13.8 13.5 13.8 14.2 13.9 13.3
I think you can see that the higher the U-Index ranking, the better the horses' finishing record in the races.
Conversely, it's worth noting that when the U-Index ranking is lower, the average finish order also drops accordingly.
This shows that the U-Index evaluations of horse's abilities are accurate.

Betting Ticket Simulations using the U-Index

Here we are doing a simulation to see what the results would be if you bought tickets to win for the horse with the highest U-Index in all the races from 2008 to 2015.
- Results when betting #1 U-Index ranked horse to win (for about 3,000 races/year for which the U-Index could be calculated)
Number of Races Number of Hits Hit Rate Average Payoff Return Rate
2008 3179 820 25.8% 327JPY 84.3%
2009 3176 824 25.9% 317JPY 82.3%
2010 3178 837 26.3% 342JPY 90.2%
2011 3180 819 25.8% 327JPY 84.3%
2012 3155 808 25.6% 340JPY 87.1%
2013 3164 853 27.0% 340JPY 91.6%
2014 3160 788 24.9% 340JPY 84.9%
2015 3158 796 25.2% 354JPY 89.4%
Total 25350 6545 25.8% 336JPY 86.8%
You can see that the hit rate for wins was solid every year at about 26%.
The rate of return was just under 90%, but this shows that it is difficult to win at the races when continuing to buy mechanically, always using the same amount.
Please refer to "Skillful Use of the U-Index" explained below and devise a buying strategy in which you adjust the amount you bet on each race.

Predicted U-Index & Results U-Index

There are 2 U-Indexes, the predicted U-Index, which is calculated prior to the post time of a race and the results U-Index, which is calculated after the race.
The predicted U-Index is calculated from the horse’s racing record to date along with the current race conditions. The results U-Index is calculated based solely on the current race.

U-Index Calculation Methods

The U-Index is calculated based on the running time of a race along with several other factors.
The results U-Index is calculated based on past racing results, then the current race conditions are factored in and the predicted U-Index is calculated.
Note that the U-Index is not shown for horses that do not have a track record at JRA races, such as maiden horses or invited horses.

Potent Race Condition Factors

The tables below are compilations of the average finish orders from 2008 to 2015 with breakdowns by course condition, distance and racetrack.
Because the calculation of the U-Index is based on speed performance, a more precise prediction can be made by culling by factors like the course and distance, which readily show the abilities of horses entered in a race.
- Track/Distance
U-Index Average Place
Turf Dirt Hurdle
1st 4.4 3.9 4.0
2nd 5.2 4.8 4.6
3rd 5.8 5.4 5.3
4th 6.2 5.9 6.0
5th 6.6 6.5 6.1
U-Index Average Place
-1600m 1700-2200m 2300m-
1st 4.2 4.0 4.3
2nd 5.0 4.9 4.8
3rd 5.7 5.4 5.4
4th 6.1 5.9 6.1
5th 6.7 6.4 6.3
- Venue
U-Index Venue
Sapporo Hakodate Fukushima Niigata Tokyo Nakayama Chukyo Kyoto Hanshin Kokura
1st 4.0 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1
2nd 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.8 5.0
3rd 5.3 5.0 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.6
4th 5.8 5.6 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.1
5th 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.8 6.5 6.5 6.7

Viewing the U-Index by Horse Age & Class

The value of the U-Index number varies according to a horse's age and class.
For the sake of argument, take a horse that has a U-Index of 90.0, if the horse is a two-year-old, it is rated as a high-performer likely to win in a GI race, but if it is an older horse, it is rated as a run-of-the-mill horse that is likely to barely win in a 10 million yen stakes race.
The table below shows the average U-Index of standard horses entered in each class and the average U-Index of winning horses in each class. (for the about 3,000 races/year for which the U-Index could be calculated)
If you refer to this table, you can get a rough grasp of the performance level of horses that ran in those races.
- 2yo
Class Average of Predicted
U-Index
Entry Horse Winning Horse
G1 84.4 86.3
G2 80.5 81.6
G3 79.5 82.2
OPEN 72.4 79.1
Allow1 - -
Allow2 - -
Allow3 77.3 81.7
Maiden 55.3 70.5
- 3yo
Class Average of Predicted
U-Index
Entry Horse Winning Horse
G1 90.4 93.2
G2 86.5 90.5
G3 83.9 87.7
OPEN 83.2 86.9
Allow1 - -
Allow2 - -
Allow3 76.0 83.7
Maiden 57.2 75.7
- 4yo&up
Class Average of Predicted
U-Index
Entry Horse Winning Horse
G1 99.4 101.8
G2 97.9 99.6
G3 97.3 99.1
OPEN 95.7 99.1
Allow1 90.9 94.3
Allow2 85.3 90.6
Allow3 75.7 85.3
Maiden - -

Skillful Use of the U-Index

As the U-Index represents the very performance of the horses, if there is a big difference in the U-Index between the number 1 and 2 horses, for example, then it's fair to say the number 1 horse has an excellent chance of winning.
If you make your bets around these horses, then you can look for horses to place and show.
Conversely, if there isn't much of a gap in the U-Index of the top horses, then the chance of an upset by a horse with a lower U-Index is high.
If some horse is being pushed as the decisive number 1 in such a race, then it's good to be a bit leery of it.
If you take other factors into account, such as performance that cannot be measured by the U-Index alone, it gives greater depth to race predictions.
For example, if you think of how a race develops, the jockey, lineage, etc., then suddenly you get closer to hitting it.
etc., then suddenly you get closer to hitting it.

So, let's try making actual predictions using the U-Index. The table below shows the U-Index from the 11th race of the Hanshin Kobe Newspaper Cup, held on September 27th, 2015.
The race was one where you could relatively easily pick a winning ticket by looking at the U-Index.
- 27 Sep 2015 KOBE SHIMBUN HAI G2
Race Prediction
In this race the top 2 horses are head and shoulders above the field. Just from this difference in the U-Index, you can surmise the likelihood of an upset is low. I would want to center my betting combinations on Lia Fail and Real Steel and limit myself to the top U-Index horses Tosen Basil, Baigaeshi, Jun Super Hikaru, Albert Dock.
Although Kilohana is recommended as a popular horse, it has just returned from a long break, and its U-Index puts it at the bottom. Don't put too much store by this.
 
Horse Name U-Index
Lia Fail 98.6
Real Steel 97.4
Tosen Basil 93.7
Baigaeshi 93.4
Jun Super Hikaru 93.3
Albert Dock 92.5
Tir Na Nog 91.9
Massabielle 91.2
Tagano Espresso 90.7
Sunrise Scence 90.4
Red Artista 89.6
Zenno Bremen 88.2
Red Solomon 88.0
Saratoga Spirit 87.5
Kilohana 83.6
- Result
Place Horse Name U-Index Odds
1st Lia Fail 98.6 8.0
2nd Real Steel 97.4 1.9
3rd Tosen Basil 93.7 21.5
4th Baigaeshi 93.4 24.7
5th Jun Super Hikaru 93.3 149.6
6th Red Solomon 88.0 35.9
7th Albert Dock 92.5 9.0
8th Tagano Espresso 90.7 89.2
9th Sunrise Scence 90.4 38.2
10th Saratoga Spirit 87.5 56.3
11th Tir Na Nog 91.9 19.3
12th Red Artista 89.6 80.4
13th Massabielle 91.2 6.6
14th Kilohana 83.6 10.2
15th Zenno Bremen 88.2 274.8