Japan Horse Racing Tips-Umanity.jp|JAPAN DERBY(G1) is held this weekend

Last week, eighth pick Jour Polaire shone brightest in the Victoria Mile and this week, on Sunday, May 20, the spotlight remains on the girls at Tokyo. The 3-year-olds are back for the second filly classic of the year, the Grade 1 Yushun Himba, a 2,400-meter turf event more commonly known as the Japanese Oaks, or simply “the Oaks.”

Twenty-one fillies have been nominated for the classic and four of them are vying for the last two spots. Eighteen will leave the gate at 15:40 local time for the Oaks’ 79th running and a chance at a share of the over ¥238 million purse and the winner’s prize of ¥110 million. In addition, the top three finishers will earn a ticket to the 2,400-meter Prix Vermeille, a Group 1 race run in September at Longchamp Racecourse.

The Oaks was first run in 1938, initially at Hanshin Racecourse, and has been run every year since, except for 1944 and 1945. Since 1943, it has been run over 2,400 meters (a distance shared by the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) and the Japan Cup at Tokyo) and was moved to Tokyo from 1946.

Trials for the Japanese Oaks include the Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), which awards a berth in the classic race to the top five finishers and the Grade 2 Flora Stakes over 2,000 meters, from which the top two finishers earn a ticket to the Oaks. The winner of the open-class Sweetpea Stakes over 1,800 meters also gets a swing at the Oaks over what will most likely be the most grueling race the fillies have yet taken on. The Tokyo course, with a homestretch of 530 meters, is the longest in Japan and includes a hill that starts 400 meters before the finish line and rises 2 meters over the next furlong.

Progeny of new stallions won the first two classics of 2018 and chances look good they’ll make it three in a row. Headlining the Oaks lineup are first-crop daughters of sprint champion Lord Kanaloa and triple crown heavyweight Orfevre. Likely to be the top two picks on Sunday are the Miho-based Oka Sho winner Almond Eye, by Lord Kanaloa and Ritto-based Oka Sho runnerup Lucky Lilac by Orfevre. The Eishin Flash filly Usubenino Kimi (if she makes the cut) will also be in the running to become the first first-crop filly in eight years to win the Yushun Himba.

Deep Impact fillies have won the race three times. Looking to make it four are seven nominees this year, including Flora Stakes winner Satono Walkure and Flower Cup champ Cantabile, who are stablemates and join yet another charge of Katsuhiko Sumii in the lineup – Sweetpea Stakes winner Randonnee. Sumii’s trio, none of whom ran in the Oka Sho, are gunning for the trainer’s third Oaks victory, which would put him out in front of the others, as well as give him his first win of the race in 10 years.

Looking to the past for hints, fillies who have raced in the Oka Sho have won the Oaks eight times over the past decade and six of them had figured in the top three spots of the first filly classic. The race favorite made the Oaks winner’s circle four times over the past 10 years and finished in second place three times and third once. Popular picks tend to do well, though upsets do occur. Ninth pick Meisho Mambo surprised when she won in 2013 and returned more than 28-1 on a ticket to win. The only double-digit pick to finish in the top three in the past 10 runnings was F T Maia, who ran second to Tall Poppy as the 13th choice in 2008.

The race record is held by Gentildonna, who clocked 2 minutes, 23.6 seconds under Yuga Kawada in 2012. All runners carry a set weight of 55 kg. The Oaks is the 11th race on the Sunday card of 12 at Tokyo Racecourse. Post time is 15:40 local time. Here is a look at the expected top picks:

Almond Eye: After running second in her debut, the Miho-based Almond Eye went on to ace all of her starts, three of them, her last being the Oka Sho on April 8, where she was a tad slow out of the gate, raced from behind, and shot down the stretch to win with a final 3-furlong time of 33.2 seconds. Her path to the Oka Sho had been an unusual one. She participated in none of the trials, but instead went from her maiden win to the Grade 3 Shinzan Stakes, competed against colts and topped them by nearly 2 lengths. This will be her first time at the distance (she’s had three miles and a 7-furlong debut), but her second time at Tokyo, where she broke her maiden. It’s a course that suits her with its long stretch. The distance has yet to be conquered by a Lord Kanaloa son or daughter but Almond Eye has support from her dam’s side. Fusaichi Pandora, who finished 14th in her Oka Sho run, went on to run second in the 2006 Oaks, then win the Queen Elizabeth II Cup in the autumn, and go on to finish fifth in the Japan Cup in the same month. All Fusaichi Pandora’s races were ridden by Yuichi Fukunaga, but Christophe Lemaire has held this daughter’s reins in all starts but the Shinzan Kinen and is set to ride her again on Sunday. Lemaire captured his first Oaks last year aboard Soul Stirring, but trainer Sakae Kunieda is looking to win his first Oaks without having to share it as he did in 2010, when his Apapane and Masaaki Koga’s Saint Emilion finished in a dead heat.

Lucky Lilac: After a debut win at Niigata, Lucky Lilac won the Grade 3 Artemis Stakes at Tokyo, then jumped to the top level for a win of the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, which brought her the JRA Best 2-Year-Old Filly award. In March came victory in the Grade 2 Tulip Sho, and then the first loss of her five-start career, in the Oka Sho, where she reached the top with 200 meters to go but was felled by Almond Eye’s swooping attack from the far outside. The extra distance, though it will be her first time over anything but 1,600 meters, should not be a problem and revenge could well be hers. “She has a big stride and I’ve always thought she was more suited to the longer distances,” says Mikio Matsunaga, who is looking for his first win of the Oaks as a trainer. As a jockey, Matsunaga won six Grade 1 races, all aboard fillies or mares, with his first big win the 1991 Oaks aboard Isono Roubles. Shu Ishibashi, who has ridden all Lucky Lilac’s five starts, has this ride.

Satono Walkure: Taking on her first Grade 1 event is the Deep Impact-sired Satono Walkure, who won the Grade 2 Flora Stakes at Tokyo last out, on her fourth start. The Katsuhiko Sumii-trained filly has figured in the money in all her races, with three wins and one third-place finish. Three of her starts have been in the 2,000-2,400 meter range, making her one of the most experienced fillies in this lineup over 2,400 meters. Satono Walkure’s run in the 2,000-meter Flora Stakes was a strong one that saw her miss a beat out of the gate but move powerfully up the stretch from the rear of the field to win in record time. Mirco Demuro, the current leading jockey, is looking to complete a total sweep of the Japanese 3-year-old classics on his fourth Oaks bid.

Lily Noble: The Rulership filly Lily Noble is another one who has finished all her starts thus far in the money, but is still looking for a Grade 1 victory. With a 1-1-2-3-3 record, all over the mile and including a second-place finish in the Hanshin Juvenile Fillies, Lily Noble gained her Oaks berth with her third-place finish in the Oka Sho. She has finished behind Lucky Lilac in her last three starts and has only allowed three horses to beat her to the finish line thus far. The extra distance should be a plus factor for Lily Noble. Her sire, who had eight wins in the 1,800-2,400 meter range, also ran fifth in the Japanese Derby and third in the Japan Cup.
Others to watch are Mau Lea, who drew wide but managed to finish fifth in the Oka Sho. She will be partnered with three-time Oaks winner Yutaka Take, who was forced to sit out the Tenno Sho (Spring) and the NHK Mile Cup (the horse he was set to ride won) due to a suspension and returned to miss the Victoria Mile by a nose. All for Love is jumping way up in class from victory in the open-class, 2,000-meter Wasurenagusa Sho, winners of which have gone on to win the Oaks twice in the past decade – Erin Court in 2011 and Mikki Queen in 2015.

Unfazed by the pouring rain, five-year-old Jour Polaire dominated a heavy contest in this year’s Victoria Mile and captured her first graded win after being sent off eighth favorite in a field of 18. Debuting in April as a three-year-old, she claimed three wins out of seven starts that year and after landing her first four-year-old start last year, went on to face open class competition where she marked a third in both the Hanshin Himba Stakes (G2, 1,600m) and the Victoria Mile. After claiming another win in her autumn campaign, she capped off the season turning in a 16th in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1, 2,200m). Her first and only start this year was in the Hanshin Himba Stakes on April 7 where she finished fifth. With this victory, trainer Masato Nishizono has now four JRA-G1 titles under his belt, his latest with Sadamu Patek in the 2012 Mile Championship, while jockey Hideaki Miyuki celebrates his first since last year’s Takamatsunomiya Kinen with Seiun Kosei, and seventh overall.

After breaking well, Jour Polaire slightly dropped back to settle two-wide and in mid-division through the backstretch while Kawakita Enka set the early pace. Still seventh to eighth at the top of the straight, the five-year-old bay came down strongly in the middle of the lane, picking off her tired rivals to finally tag Aerolithe and Red Avancer in the final strides while holding off the fast-closing Lys Gracieux right before the wire for the win by a nose.

‟I wasn’t worried about the rain and going getting softer because it was perfect for my mare. I was hoping to race a little more near the pace. She showed a great turn of foot but it was so close, I couldn’t make out if we were beaten by Lys Gracieux from the outside at the end or not,” commented Hideaki Miyuki.

Breaking from a wide stall, race favorite Lys Gracieux was reserved in lower mid-pack, a few lengths behind Jour Polaire in early stretch and, while displaying the fastest late drive, tenaciously chased the eventual winner but had too much ground to make up and finished a nose second, her fourth G1 runner-up effort.

Seventh favorite Red Avancer traveled in fourth to fifth, made most of the clear path that opened at top of the stretch to dig in with full force and inherited the lead from Aerolithe just before the furlong marker, but was caught by the winner and then the favorite just before the line for a close third.

Other Horses:
4th: (10) Aerolithe―advanced to 3rd, rallied for lead at 300m out, outrun in last 100m
5th: (2) Miss Panthere―traveled in 9th, met traffic at early stretch, quickened in last 200m
6th: (1) Let’s Go Donki―took economic trip in 7th, switched outside for clear path 300m out, rallied
7th: (9) Soul Stirring―raced in 10th, turned wide, lacked needed kick
8th: (11) Admire Lead―saved ground in 11th, quickened after 200m marker, was too late
9th: (13) One to One―traveled 3rd from rear, showed belated charge in last 200m
10th: (5) Reine Minoru―hugged rails in 4th, ran gamely until 100m out
11th: (18) Maids of Honour―ran wide around 15th, passed tired rivals in last 200m
12th: (17) Denko Ange―raced wide around 12th, lacked needed kick at stretch
13th: (3) Rabbit Run―settled around 6th, failed to respond at stretch
14th: (7) Kawakita Enka―set pace, sustained bid until 200m out, dropped back
15th: (14) Rieno Tesoro―pressed pace in 2nd or 3rd, weakened after 200m pole
16th: (15) Dea Regalo―sat 2nd from rear, showed brief effort, even paced in last 300m
17th: (12) Eterna Minoru―traveled around 14th, showed little along rails at stretch
18th: (8) Queen’s Milagro―broke poorly, trailed in rear, no factor

The Japan Racing Association continues to roll out its big races, with one every week at Tokyo Racecourse through the first Sunday in June. On the heels of the Tenno Sho (Spring) and the 3-year-olds’ NHK Mile Cup and just before the spring classics comes the Victoria Mile on Sunday, May 13 at Tokyo. It’s an all-female event and the only Grade 1 race this month not exclusively for 3-year-olds.

The Victoria Mile showcases fillies and mares 4 years old and up, and this year marks its 13th running. The lineup of 18 is one of the headiest yet, boasting six Grade 1 winners, including 2015 Oka Sho winner Let’s Go Donki and two-time Grade 1 winner Soul Stirring. Aerolithe, who beat the boys in the NHK Mile Cup last year, will take on last year’s Victoria Mile champion Admire Lead, looking to become the third horse in a row following Verxina and Straight Girl to win successive versions of the race. In fact the top three finishers of the 2017 Victoria Mile (runnerup Denko Ange and third-place finisher Jour Polaire in addition to Admire Lead) will compete again for a purse weightier than ever at nearly ¥228 million, with a ¥105-million winner’s prize.

The 1,600-meter turf event at Tokyo, where races are run to the left, starts at the top of the backstretch and dips slightly from the gate for about 250 meters. The track rises again, dips into the bend, and levels into the 525-meter long stretch, which has the extra test of a slope rising some 2 meters over 150 meters until the ground flattens out over the final 300 meters.

The Victoria Mile has often finished in an upset, with the favorite only having won three times in the past – in 2009, 2010 and 2013. Double-digit picks have made the winner’s circle twice before and have figured in the top three spots eight times since the race’s debut.

Four-year-olds account for the most winners of the Victoria Mile thus far, having captured the race seven times. Three 5-year-olds have won before and the oldest horse to have won was Straight Girl, as a 6-year-old and again the following year at the age of 7. Straight Girl also holds the Victoria Mile record of 1 minute, 31.5 seconds set in 2016.

Eighteen fillies and mares have been nominated for this year’s Victoria Mile, Sunday’s 11th race of 12 at Tokyo Racecourse. Post time is 15:40 local time.

Following are the expected top choices:

Lys Gracieux: Although she has yet to capture a Grade 1 race, Lys Gracieux gets top marks for consistency, having only finished out of the top three twice in her 12 career starts, and both of those races were at distances of more than 2,000 meters. Hailing from the stable of Ritto-based trainer Yoshito Yahagi, the 4-year-old daughter of Heart’s Cry has two Grade 3 wins and a 2-3-3-2 overall record in Grade race competition. She ran second in the 1,600-meter Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), where she finished half a length behind Reine Minoru and a neck ahead of Soul Stirring. Last out, she ran a close third to Miss Panthere and Red Avancer in the Grade 2 Hanshin Himba Stakes. In February, she showed her prowess over the Tokyo 1,600 when she topped a mixed field of largely male and older horses in the Grade 3 Tokyo Shimbun Hai. She also won over the same conditions as a 2-year-old in the Artemis Stakes. Yutaka Take has ridden the majority of her starts and is pegged for the Victoria Mile ride, which will find Take, who just turned 50, just four shy of 500 rides at the Grade 1 level.

Aerolithe: The 4-year-old gray Aerolithe, who takes after her sire Kurofune (winner of the 2001 NHK Mile Cup), has also demonstrated consistency, but has only nine starts thus far and a 5th, 1st, 7th finish in her three Grade 1 bids. Her three wins have come at distances in the 1,400-1,800 range, with her one Grade 1 victory in last year’s NHK Mile Cup, which followed her fifth-place run in the Oka Sho. Aerolithe’s winning time in the 2017 NHK Mile Cup was a half second faster than this year’s NHK Mile Cup winning time and both tracks were fast. Last out, on Feb. 25, Aerolithe returned after a spell of 4 1/2 months to finish a neck off the winner in the Grade 2 1,800-meter Nakayama Kinen. With that race under her belt, she’ll likely show improvement. In the saddle is expected to be Keita Tosaki, who will be paired with Aerolithe for the first time. Tosaki has two wins of the Victoria Mile, both aboard Straight Girl. In Straight Girl’s first bid in 2015, Tosaki had also been riding her for the first time. Trained by former jockey Takanori Kikuzawa, Aerolithe has the advantage of being stabled closer to Tokyo than those having to make the long haul from Ritto.

Admire Lead: Sired by Stay Gold, the now 5-year-old Admire Lead last year went on to win the Victoria Mile after running second in her prep, the Hanshin Himba Stakes. This year, after running fourth in the same race and having preceded that with a 6-3-12 record following the Victoria Mile, Admire Lead is not expected to make the top three picks. Then again, she won last year as sixth choice. Her popularity will no doubt be down at the betting windows this time, but her finish in the Hanshin Himba Stakes was a close one, 0.1 seconds behind the winner while carrying 2kg more than the three who preceded her over the finish line. Ritto-based trainer Naosuke Sugai says, “She had the same rotation last year and we’re getting her ready in the same way as last year. She’s matured both mentally and physically since turning 4 and is no longer bothered by the haul to the track. I’m expecting her to rally.” Last year, Admire Lead was partnered with Christophe Lemaire, but this year Mirco Demuro, who rode her prep, is expected to be up.

Soul Stirring: Following her magnificent record from her debut all the way through the Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) (five wins and a third), the Frankel-sired Soul Stirring failed to make the board in her next four outings (two Grade 2s and two Grade 1s), in which she was competing against male horses at the Grade 2 level and above for the first time. Her last start, the mile Hanshin Himba Stakes, saw Soul Stirring return after over 4 months to finish 10th amid a pace that didn’t suit her. Though this will be her first Tokyo mile, Soul Stirring has run five of her 10 starts at Tokyo and won over 1,800 meters. Sharpened from her last race and with a stronger pace, she surely has what it takes to make the money. Christophe Lemaire, who has ridden all of her races except the Japan Cup, is to be in the irons.

Miss Panthere: Though she turned in double-digit finishes in both her Grade 1 bids last spring, the Daiwa Major-sired 4-year-old Miss Panthere has been doing just fine since last fall. She’s now on a four-way winning streak, having aced the Grade 3 Turquoise Stakes over a mile in December, the Grade 3 Kyoto Himba Stakes over 1,400 meters in February and, last out, the Grade 2 Hanshin Himba Stakes over a mile on April 7. This will be only her second start at Tokyo, her first was the Japanese Oaks, in which she finished 10th. All of her other starts have been over right-handed tracks. Miss Panthere went wire to wire last out, but can race from any position and it is believed she can handle the Tokyo mile as well. Word has it she has lost the furry winter look she still sported last out and the sheen is up on her new coat. She did have the weight advantage last out, running under 54kg, but will carry 55kg this time, as will all runners. Norihiro Yokoyama is set for the ride.
Others to watch include darkhorse Denko Ange, a 5-year-old by Meisho Samson. She surprised as 11th pick when she finished second in last year’s Victoria Mile. She had come off a fourth in the Fukushima Himba Stakes then, and this year she ran third. Her 1st, 2nd, and 4th finishes over the Tokyo mile thus far bode well. The 4-year-old daughter of Manhattan Cafe, Dea Regalo is a longshot that has yet to take on a Grade 2 race, but is making the leap up to the top level after running a close second to Miss Panthere in the Kyoto Himba Stakes. Red Avancer, by Deep Impact, is another from the Hanshin Himba Stakes group to watch. She ran second in that race and has been consistent at the lower levels in the mile range.

Keiai Nautique landed his first grade-race victory in this year’s NHK Mile Cup. Debuting in June of his two-year-old season, the Deep Impact colt finished third in the 2017 Daily Hai Nisai Stakes (G2) in November prior to the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes (G1) in which he finished fourth. Raced at a mile throughout his career, he registered a win in his second start as a sophomore and had come off a runner-up effort in the New Zealand Trophy (G2) for the NHK Mile Cup. Trainer Osamu Hirata claimed his fourth JRA-G1 title with the win—the latest being the 2017 Champions Cup with Gold Dream—while the NHK Mile Cup title was his second after with Curren Black Hill in 2012. Jockey Yusuke Fujioka, who came into the race with 28 graded titles since his debut in 2004, captured his first career JRA-G1 title.

Keiai Nautique was unhurried after the break sitting well behind the race, second from last and still well behind while moving to the outside for a clear path entering the stretch. Despite having to cover much ground along the outermost route, the bay colt mowed down his rivals with great force and continued to increase his speed in the final strides to pin down Gibeon while holding off Red Veyron for a neck victory.

“He was a bit slow to pick up speed so we had to race from behind, but he more than made up with his speed and sheer determination. His potential is so great and I think he can handle longer distance,” commented Yusuke Fujioka.

Gibeon broke sharply and nicely covered between horses, settling in mid-division. As the field rounded the final corner, Gibeon responded instantly, split horses and pulled away with plenty of gas as some began to tire at the top of the stretch while just missing by a neck before the wire for second.

Red Veyron, while having to race wide for most of the way after breaking from stall 17, made steady headway along the outside and exerted a fine turn of speed to threaten the leaders in the final furlong but was just short of reaching the top two for a close third.

Race favorite Tower of London under Christophe Lemaire stumbled at the start and was rated a little further back in mid-field. Shifting to the inside along the rails rounding the third and final corners, the pair struggled to find a clear path which never materialized after entering the straight, and the two-time graded winner was pinched back behind a wall of horses in mid-stretch, lost momentum and faded to 12th.

Other Horses:
4th: (16) Mr Melody―advanced to 4th from wide draw, ran gamely for 2nd, outrun in final strides
5th: (5) Primo Scene―broke slowly, checked at 3rd corner, 15th entering lane, quickened and rallied
6th: (10) Pax Americana―ran wide around 10th, accelerated until 100m out, weakened in final strides
7th: (8) Danon Smash―pressed pace in 2nd, ran gamely until 150m out, weakened
8th: (1) Katsuji―was off slow, saved ground around 9th, struggled to find clear path
9th: (14) Delta Barows―trailed in rear, angled wide, passed tired rivals
10th: (15) Cassius―settled wide around 6th, ran gamely but met traffic passing 200m pole
11th: (6) Ryono Tesoro―raced around 11th, lacked needed kick at stretch
13th: (4) Frontier―sat near pace around 5th, met traffic 200m out, lost momentum
14th: (3) Tetradrachm―led field until 300m out, tired from early effort
15th: (2) Fast Approach―chased leader around 3rd along the rails, shuffled back by rivals and faded
16th: (13) Lucas―traveled 3rd from rear, showed little in stretch
17th: (12) Encore Plus―sat around 14th, unable to reach contention
18th: (18) Rock This Town―positioned wide around 8th, faded after 400m out