Japan Horse Racing Tips-Umanity.jp

14th favorite Dura Erede claimed this year’s Hopeful Stakes nosing out his rival at the wire to outshine the other hopefuls in the year-end G1 test for two-year-old’s. Debuting in June this year and breaking his maiden in his third career start in August, the son of Duramente came into this race after putting in a fourth-place finish in the G2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes (1,800m) on November 19. The dark brown colt has given trainer Manabu Ikezoe and Kazakhstan native-jockey Bauyrzhan Murzabayev—who is riding in Japan under a short-term license for the first time—their first JRA-G1 victories.

Top Knife was sent up front as the race got underway and led the 18-horse field while Dura Erede pressed the pace from the outside in second all the way into the stretch. As the two dueled running up the hill, Top Knife briefly shook off the persistent Dura Erede and put close to a length lead between him 100 meters out. However, the stubborn Duramente colt found another gear and dug in with enormous force to overtake his rival at the wire, notching a photo-finish victory.

“It’s the same good feeling as when I won my first G1 race in Germany—I’m very happy. I couldn’t tell if we won, it was so close, but my colt broke well and it was the plan to chase the pace in second so everything went well. After two close seconds last weekend, I’m so happy that I came in first in the last G1 race of the year,” commented jockey Bauyrzhan Murzabayev in an interview after the race.

King’s Reign was off a bit slow, first sitting in fourth from the rear and then improved position in the backstretch up to a mid-pack seat before taking the widest route into the lane. Although with a lot of ground to cover, the Rulership colt stormed down the straight with the fastest closing speed and put away Fantom Thief at the wire while finishing 1-1/4 lengths behind the runner-up for third place.

Race favorite Mikki Cappuccino rushed up close to the pace after breaking sharply from the widest stall and stalked the two frontrunners in third. The Epiphaneia colt continued to chase the leaders in early stretch but failed to further threaten and was overtaken by Fantom Thief and then King’s Reign before the finishing line and was fifth.

Other Horses:
4th: (1) Phantom Thief—reserved in 7th on rails, switched paths for room, dug in with 2nd-tied fastest late speed but caught before wire
6th: (9) Seven Magician—sat in mid-field and 3-wide, closed in well while briefly dueling with King’s Reign 100m out
7th: (2) Hearts Concerto—saved ground in 10th, showed 2nd-tied fastest late speed, no match for winners
8th: (4) Serendipity—traveled in mid-pack, two-wide, bumped rival in early stretch, unable to reach contention
9th: (3) Sea Wizard—fourth on the rails, sustained bid until 100m out, nothing left thereafter
10th: (14) J Palms—settled 10th to 11th and 3-wide, struggled climbing hill, passed tired rivals
11th: (6) Gruner Green—sat in 6th, made rapid headway rounding final corner, showed little in stretch
12th: (13) Wurttemberg—bobbled at start, ran rails around 4th from rear, showed mild effort
13th: (7) Born in Grande—ran in 10th to 11th, near rear coming into lane, failed to respond
14th: (17) Jun Tsubamegaeshi—gradually made headway up to 7th in backstretch, drifted out in last turn, nothing left
15th: (5) Fate—traveled in 3rd, 5th entering lane, came up empty after early efforts
16th: (10) Gastrique—reserved 4th to 5th from rear, made bid turning into straight, never fired
17th: (12) Monde Plume—missed break, trailed near rear, was through early
18th: (16) Ska Paradise—followed in rear, never a factor

This Wednesday, Dec. 28, youth is spotlighted in the Hopeful Stakes, what is now the last Grade 1 event of the Japan Racing Association year. This year, 2 days separate the Arima Kinen (The Grand Prix) and the 2,000-meter competition for 2-year-olds.

Whereas the Arima Kinen is a gathering of old favorites, the Hopeful Stakes brings together youngsters just starting out, some with only one start in their budding careers before the leap to the top-level competition. Eighteen 2-year-olds have been nominated for the race, and though fillies are eligible, this year's nominees are all colts.

The entrants are not the only ones debuting on the Grade 1 level. Five new sires have their first progeny to take on the top -- Declaration of War, Beach Patrol, 2004 Satsuki Sho runnerup Real Steel, and Satono Crown and Satono Diamond, both with two G1 victories apiece.

Together, the Hopeful Stakes, Hanshin Juvenile Fillies and the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes, bring the number of JRA Grade 1 events (all on turf, all in December) open solely to 2-year-olds to three, with the last two held currently over the mile at Hanshin. The Hopeful Stakes is run over the same distance and at the same venue as the Satsuki Sho, the first and shortest of the three 3-year-old classics that comprise Japan's Triple Crown.

The Hopeful Stakes marks its 39th running this year, but only its sixth anniversary of becoming a Grade 1 competition. The race's roots are long and it has gone by many names. The most recent moniker was the Radio Nikkei Nisai Stakes at Hanshin, a Grade 3 at Hanshin promoted to a G2 in 2014, rechristened and moved to Nakayama. In 2017, the Hopeful Stakes was further promoted to a G1. It now sports a purse of over 152 million yen, with a winner's prize of 70 million.

The race is held over the Nakayama inner course, and the starting gate is set at the top of the homestretch, to the right of the grandstand. The field will pass before the grandstand twice before reaching the finish line. It's about 400 meters from the starting gate and the first turn.

There's an upward slope to negotiate while vying for position before the bend and the slope continues to rise ever so slightly into the bend before descending along the backstretch and into the turn. Here, the relatively tight turns of Nakayama cause many horses to circle wide and those on the outside will be forced to cover more ground. Into the stretch, the final distance is only 310 meters, but it's up the hill once again before the youngsters can call it a day. It's a grueling course, whatever the age.

On Wednesday, races will be held at both Nakayama and Hanshin. The Hopeful Stakes will be the 11th race (of 12) on the Wednesday card at Nakayama. Note that the post time is 3:25 p.m., 15 minutes earlier than usual for Grade 1 events.

Here's a look at some of the expected popular choices.

Gastrique - The Just a Way colt Gastrique is now two for two, after swiftly pocketing his first big test with victory in the G2 Tokyo Sports Nisai Stakes (1,800, Tokyo) Nov. 19. Slow away in both his starts (both over 9 furlongs, both at Tokyo), his lightning-fast late kick has seen him home the winner. In four of the last five runnings of the Hopeful Stakes, the eventual winners were no further back than fourth position at the top of the stretch years. Gastrique's superior late speed, however, may prove him one of the exceptions. Calm and cool, he is also expected to be able to handle the extra furlong. A big colt, it remains to be seen how he will fare over the tighter turns of Nakayama and his first race to the right. It should also be noted that, in the last five runnings since the Hopeful Stakes became a Grade 1 competition, only one graded stakes race winner (Contrail in 2019) has won the race. Hailing from the stable of the Miho-based Hiroyuki Uehara, Gastrique will also be bucking a Hopeful Stakes 5-year winning streak by Ritto-based horses.

Mikki Cappuccino - Mikki Cappuccino is unbeaten in his two career starts thus far, both over 2,000 meters, the first at Tokyo and the most recent (Dec. 3) over the Nakayama 2,000 in the Habotan Sho. Though that race included no other Hopeful Stakes nominees, Mikki Cappuccino's winning margin of 3 1/2 lengths over the Hopeful Stakes course alone bodes well. He missed the break and raced from a rear position but was six off the front at the top of the stretch, and a time of 34.6 seconds over the final 3 furlongs brought him home a winner. His sire Epiphaneia had two wins at the distance, including a G3 and was runnerup in the 2013 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas). Keita Tosaki has ridden both Mikki Cappuccino's starts and is expected up on Wednesday. Ritto-based Yoshito Yahagi, currently leading JRA trainers with 56 wins this year, also leads for overall wins of 2-year-old events.

Hearts Concerto - From a stunning debut win by 8 lengths over the Chukyo 2,000, Hearts Concerto lept to the graded level in the Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes (G2, Tokyo) on Nov. 19. Though he was slow at the break and disappointed as the race favorite, his third-place finish was only 0.2 seconds behind winner Gastrique. The Heart's Cry-colt is a full brother to Nasuno Symphony, a filly who also hailed from the Miho stable of Ryo Takei. Nasuno Symphony topped 11 colts and one filly in finishing fifth in the 2017 Hopeful Stakes. This will be Heart Concerto's first time racing to the right.

King's Reign - Fielded by the Miho-based Takahisa Tezuka, King's Reign posted 3-1-1 in his three starts to date, two in the summer in Hokkaido and his most recent in the Hyakunichiso Tokubetsu over the Tokyo 2,000 on Nov. 6. He is by Rulership, who excelled over 10 furlongs, and out of the Deep Impact mare Touching Speech, who captured the 2015 Rose Stakes (G2, 1,800, Hanshin) and finished a close third behind two older fillies in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup that same year.

Top Knife - A son of the American-bred, Irish-trained Declaration of War, winner of three G1s in England, Top Knife won the listed Hagi Stakes over the Hanshin 1,800. He then finished second in the Radio Nikkei Kyoto Nisai Stakes (G3, 2,000) to the front-running Gruner Green, who evaded the interference suffered by a third of the field at the top of the stretch. Top Knife displayed excellent racing ability and did a fine job of coming to within a head of the winner.

Gruner Green - After a 3-1 at Tokyo over 9 and 10 furlongs, Gruner Green captured the Radio Nikkei Kyoto Nisai Stakes (G3, 2,000) at Hanshin wire to wire on Nov. 26. He's a son of Lovely Day, who was given the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes over the mile and finished seventh, but later went on to excel at distances of 2,000-2,400 meters. Gruner Green is a half brother to Verde Green, winner of two G2 events (both over 2,200 meters).

Phantom Thief - Horses debuting at Hanshin have won the Hopeful Stakes for the past 4 years straight, and Phantom Thief, unbeaten in his two starts, was a standout in his debut over the Hanshin 1,600. Next up, he captured the Nojigiku Stakes (Chukyo, 2,000) by 2 lengths. He's a half brother to Lupinus Lead, a filly 1 year his senior who has notched 4 wins, 1 second and 1 third in 8 starts and has reached the open class. Expected in the saddle is Yuichi Fukunaga, who tops all jockeys with his record seven G1 2-year-old wins, Fukunaga has one final chance to make it eight before his retirement at the end of February.

Others of interest:

Despite being the only runner to suffer interference in the Radio Nikkei Hai Kyoto Nisai Stakes (G3, 2,000, Nov. 26), the Kitasan Black-sired Wurttemberg managed to finish in third place (0.2 seconds off the winner). His 2-1 at Kokura over 1,800 meters also shows him adept over tighter courses. The Real Steel-sired Fate, who also hails from the stable of Yoshito Yahagi, won his debut and returned 3 months later to finish fifth (half a second slower than winner Gastrique) in the Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes (G2, 1,800, Nov. 19). This, however, will be his first test over a clockwise course. J Palms is one of two hopefuls with only one previous start. J Palms is a half brother to 2021 Hopeful Stakes winner Killer Ability and displayed ample talent acing his debut over the Tokyo 2,000 on Nov. 5.

Three-year-old Equinox claimed this year’s Arima Kinen to capture the title with the fewest career starts. Sired by 2017 Arima Kinen victor Kitasan Black, the brown colt marked two wins out of the same starts including the Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes (G2, 1,800m) as a two-year-old but failed to capture this year’s spring classic titles, finishing second in both the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas, G1, 2,000m) and the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby, G1, 2,400m). The Arima Kinen was the sixth career outing for the colt who came off a victory in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) (G1, 2,000m). Trainer Tetsuya Kimura captured his fourth JRA-G1 victory following his Tenno Sho (Autumn) title with this colt and jockey Christophe Lemaire marked his 43rd JRA-G1 win and third Arima Kinen title following his victories with Heart's Cry (2005) and Satono Diamond (2016).

The race started with Titleholder immediately surging out to set the pace while race favorite Equinox eased back to around ninth. The son of Kitasan Black traveled wide in good striking position, made headway turning the final corners wide and, once taking the lead entering the lane, responded willingly to the jockey’s urging with a strong burst of speed that timed the second fastest closing speed while easily holding off the rest of the field with a 2-1/2-length margin.

“What happens twice will happen thrice. I won the Arima Kinen with Heart’s Cry and Satono Diamond both on Christmas Day, and I’m really happy to be able to win the race on Christmas Day again. We were able to make a good start and the horse was keen to go so I held him and responded strongly when I brought him to the outside. Though he was not mature yet during his spring campaign, he became really strong from this fall and I look forward to his performance next year,” commented Christophe Lemaire.

Slow out of the gate, sixth pick Boldog Hos settled second from last by the rails but angled out and accelerated strongly rounding the last corners. The Screen Hero colt entered the stretch right behind the race favorite and, though unable to threaten the leader, showed an impressive kick that timed the fastest last three furlongs to finish second, 1-1/2 lengths in front of Geraldina.

Third choice Geraldina, coming off her victory in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup last month, broke poorly and sat third from the rear. Driven after the third corner, the Maurice filly launched her late kick and closed in on Equinox and Boldog Hos but had too much ground to make up to finish third.

Other Horses:
4th: (2) Izu Jo no Kiseki—positioned around 7th on rails, slightly angled out at early stretch, quickened
5th: (7) Efforia—sat 3-wide around 5th, rallied for lead briefly, unable to keep up with top finishers
6th: (8) Win Mighty—took economic trip in 10-11th, passed one by one at stretch
7th: (10) Justin Palace—hugged rails around 3rd, sustained bid until 100m out
8th: (16) Deep Bond—tracked leaders around 3rd from widest stall, weakened in last 200m
9th: (13) Titleholder—set pace, failed to find another gear, surrendered lead at early stretch
10th: (6) Vela Azul—raced 3-wide around 11th, showed brief effort, even paced in last 200m
11th: (14) Boccherini—settled around 5th, unable to remain in contention in last 300m
12th: (12) Potager—ran around 8th inside winner, failed to respond after final corner
13th: (11) Last Draft—traveled 3-wide around 11th, showed little at stretch
14th: (4) Aristoteles—saved ground around 11th, outrun turning last corners
15th: (1) Akai Ito—unhurried and trailed in rear, never fired at stretch
16th: (15) Breakup—chased pace from wide draw, faded after 3rd corner

Fifth favorite Nishino Daisy landed his first J-G1 title in only his fourth career start since switching to steeplechase racing. Claiming two G3 titles on the flat at 1,800 meters in the Sapporo Nisai Stakes and the Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes, the Harbinger colt also finished third in the Hopeful Stakes (G1, 2,000m) as a two-year-old and was fifth in the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby, G1, 2,400m) during his three-year-old campaign. However winless during three seasons at three, four and five, Nishino Daisy was switched to jump races and finished third in his debut start in May this year. He proceeded to score his first win over fences in June and was runner-up in his last start, the Shuyo Jump Stakes (Open Class, 3,110m) on November 19. Trainer Noboru Takagi has won the 2014 Sprinters Stakes (Snow Dragon) and the 2016 Champions Cup (Sound True) in flat racing but the Nakayama Daishogai is his first J-G1 title. Jockey Yusuke Igarashi won his third J-G1 title after 2013 Nakayama Daishogai and the 2014 Nakayama Grand Jump, both with Apollo Maverick.

Nishino Daisy was unhurried and reserved in mid-field off the rails, turned wide after the second fence (no.1) but soon got back into the flow. Still held back turning left after the fifth fence (no.6) and saving ground along the rails, the son of Harbinger made his move upon landing the big hedge (no.7), advanced to second then assumed command early in the backstretch from where the bay began to extend his speed to open the gap by several lengths by the last fence (no.5). Showing no sign of slowing down, Nishino Daisy romped home uncontested to cross the wire by a comfortable three-lengths margin.

“I’m really happy and I had a very good ride. His inexperience showed in parts of the race, right from the first fence, but he responded well and, with Oju Chosan in view during most of the trip, we were able to gear up really well in the last half. He’s a natural with a lot of strength and I was sure that he had the ability to face this high-quality field,” commented jockey Yusuke Igarashi.

Third pick Xenoverse broke nicely from an outside draw and moved up near the leaders soon after the first fence (no.5) to position in third or fourth. Maintaining his position for most of the trip thereafter, the son of Deep Impact found another gear upon landing the last jump (no.5) and entered the homestretch in second. However, the winner was already at a distance where Xenoverse was unable to cause any serious threat while succeeding to finish second by more than a length from the next finisher.

Sixth favorite Meiner Leone raced off the pace, second or third from the rear and gradually advanced between horses to mid-division as the field turned right after the big hedge (no.7). Turning for home around sixth position, he accelerated impressively through an opening inside to finish third.

Race favorite Oju Chosan took advantage of an inside draw to race along the rails, positioned in the front group around fourth to begin then eventually settled a little further back between fifth and seventh position, shifting to the inside to save ground as the field changed leads from right to left then right again. Falling behind to about seven lengths from the leader along the backstretch, the 11-year-old son of Stay Gold was unable to pick up enough speed to close in on the leaders once entering the homestretch to finish sixth in his final start of his career. The legendary jumper will retire with nine J-G1 victories out of 12 starts at the highest level and an overall record of 18-2-4 in 32 career starts over obstacles.

Other Horses:
4th: (6) Muscle Beach—settled in 9th early, dropped position to last after 5th jump (no.6), made headway after 8th jump (no.2), had too much ground to make up
5th: (2) Village Eagle—set pace until 7th jump (no.7), used up after 9th jump (no.3)
7th: (5) Blason d'Amour—sat in 8-9th early, last at 5th jump (no.6), passed tiring rivals thereafter
8th: (8) Ken Hovawart—advanced to 2nd after 3rd jump (no.2), took brief lead after 7th jump (no.7), weakened after 10th jump (no.4)
9th: (10) T M Chuhai—ran around 7th early, dropped back after 5th jump (no.6)
10th: (3) T M Tatsumaki—traveled around 6th early, outrun after 5th jump (no.6)
Failed to Finish: (4) Asakusa Genki—chased pace in 2nd early, gradually fell back, unseated rider at final jump (no.5)