Japan Horse Racing Tips-Umanity.jp

Ascoli Piceno and Corazon Beat failed to follow in the footsteps of Obamburumai in the James Squire Golden Eagle on Saturday (Nov. 2), both finishing in the bottom half of the 20-horse field at Rosehill Gardens.

The pair of 3-year-old fillies from the JRA could not work Obanburumai’s magic of a year ago as Hanshin Juvenile Fillies winner Ascoli Piceno crossed the wire 12th while Corazon Beat placed last in the 1,500-meter affair.

Lake Forest, ridden by Cieren Fallon, beat out Lazzat from the inside to prevail in the A$10 million race in 1 minute, 27.98 seconds on good 4 going.

The two Japanese challengers did not have the most favorable of draws, being forced to work from the outside. Ascoli Piceno, with Joao Moreira in the saddle, was posted in gate No. 17 and Corazon Beat No. 19, under jockey Tommy Berry.

The Yoichi Kuroiwa-trained Ascoli Piceno went off as the betting favorite but was bumped at the start and knocked back towards the rear, having to take the scenic route throughout the journey.

The daughter of multi-Grade 1 champion Daiwa Major, out of Ascoli, inched her way up down the home stretch but not enough to overtake the leaders who bolted for the finish by the rails.

Ascoli Piceno finished out of the money for the first time in her seven-start career, unable to pass the test of her overseas debut.

Corazon Beat had a much better jump out of the gates but like her compatriot, was pushed towards the outside, expending her energy. She charged into the final straight fifth from the front but quickly lost steam and had to bring up the rear.

After a one-week break in the JRA Grade 1 action, the big autumn races kick in once again, with this week’s Queen Elizabeth II Cup to be run at Kyoto Racecourse on Sunday (November 10). It is a race for fillies and mares, run over 2,200 meters on the outer turf course at Kyoto, and is for 3-year-olds and up.

First run in 1976 to commemorate Queen Elizabeth’s visit to Japan in 1975, it was originally for 3-year-old fillies and run over the distance of the Grade 1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks), which is 2,400 meters. When the Grade 1 Shuka Sho was established in 1996 exclusively for 3-year-old fillies, the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup became an all-aged race for fillies and mares. It became an international Grade 1 race in 1999, with its first foreign runner in 2003, and Snow Fairy became the first overseas winner in 2010, following up again in 2011.

This year sees 19 nominations for the race (no foreign horses are among them), in which 3-year-olds carry 54kg, and 4-year-olds and up carry 56kg. The maximum number of runners is capped at 18. The race last year was won by Brede Weg, a 3-year-old daughter of Lord Kanaloa, who became just the second first favorite to win in the last 10 years. Four-year-old fillies have dominated in that same time period, with seven wins in the race. Record time for the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup was set by To the Victory, winning in a time of 2 minutes, 11.2 seconds back in 2001. This year’s winner’s check is JPY130 million (just under USD1 million). The Grade 2 Ireland Trophy Fuchu Himba Stakes has been one of the lead-up races to this week’s big race, and it was run over 1,800 meters at Tokyo in October.

The 49th running of the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup will be Race 11 on the Sunday card at Kyoto, with a post time locally of 15:40, and final declarations, together with the barrier draw, will be available later in the week.

Here’s a look at some of the fillies and mares likely to start in the race:

Regaleira: The 3-year-old filly has taken an unusual career path so far, having run in the first two races of the colts’ Triple Crown, and now finds herself taking on older horses for the first time in this Sunday’s race. Never a particularly fast starter, she saves her best for last, and has secured the fastest final three-furlong times in all her races. Assistant trainer Yu Ota commented: “She showed her characteristic start last time, although she jumped more smoothly, and then went on to finish strongly in her usual way. Since returning to the stable, she’s been moving well in training, running in a relaxed way early on, before finishing off her work with a good turn of foot.” Jockey Christophe Lemaire once again rides for the trainer of Regaleira, Tetsuya Kimura.

Wholeness: The Irish-bred filly by Lope de Vega looks to be still improving, and is coming off a win in a Listed Race (Niigata Himba Stakes) over 2,200 meters in October. She has always been in the first three from six starts, and now has four wins to her name. Assistant trainer Nobuyuki Tashiro said: “The jockey last time managed to ride her in a relaxed way, and the horse came out of the race without any problems. Even though she has only won on left-handed tracks, she has run well racing right-handed too. We’ve taken care with her, and she’s developing nicely and has a lot more muscle now.” The 4-year-old runs in the Godolphin colors and looks set to be ridden by Ryusei Sakai.

Stunning Rose: Since winning the Grade 1 Shuka Sho and giving jockey Ryusei Sakai his first top-level win in 2022, the 5-year-old mare by King Kamehameha hasn’t always been able to show her best. Her two most recent runs, however, have shown that she might be finding some of her old sparkle, and although she finished sixth last time in the Grade 3 Hokkaido Shimbun Hai Queen Stakes at Sapporo in July, she wasn’t far off the winner. Trainer Tomokazu Takano commented: “I thought she ran well last time in a race where she had to take in four corners. There was a 6kg difference in the weight she had to carry compared to the winner. This race became her target after that, and she’s in good shape on her return to the stable.” Visiting jockey Cristian Demuro is in great form and takes the ride on Stunning Rose.

Harper: The daughter of Heart’s Cry is another horse trying to regain her best form, and having finished third in the Grade 1 QEII Cup last year, the distance of the race looks better than that of her last two starts, where she ran over a shorter trip in both of them. “She’s moving well and looks to be in very good condition,” said trainer Yasuo Tomomichi. “She gets into good positions in her races, but sometimes can’t produce in the homestretch. It just seems to be a bit of a mental thing with her.” Jockey Yutaka Take teams up again with the trainer, and both of them will be hoping for another big win here after their recent success with Do Deuce.

Shinryokuka: The filly by Satono Diamond is now a 4-year-old, and she won her first graded race last time in the Grade 3 Niigata Kinen over 2,000 meters in September. It was just her second career win, so hopes are high again after previous setbacks. Comments from assistant training staff were: “Two starts ago, she stumbled and fell in the race, so we’ve had to get her back after that, but it was a relief that she came back well in her last race and was able to win at graded level for the first time. She seems more relaxed now and should improve some more ahead of this next race.”

Moryana: The Northern Farm-bred filly has run in four Grade 1 races, and her best finish was fifth in last year’s Shuka Sho. She finished seventh in this year’s Victoria Mile, and earlier this year, she managed a fourth-place finish in her only race over 2,200 meters, the Grade 2 American Jockey Club Cup at Nakayama back in January. Trainer Yoshinori Muto said: “She showed her weak point in her last race by not running with a good rhythm early to get a good position. Having to make up ground from the rear, and not being able to switch to the outside, she got a run on the inside, where she ran on well to finish eighth. The distance of this next race will be the key.”

Scintillation: The lightly raced 5-year-old mare by Lord Kanaloa runs in the Silk Racing Co. Ltd. Colors, and impressed last time when finishing second to Brede Weg in the Grade 2 Ireland Trophy Fuchu Himba Stakes over 1,800 meters at Tokyo in October. That run pleased her trainer, Masakazu Ikegami. “She was up in class last time, and while I thought it might be tough for her, she was able to chase the eventual winner right up until the finish. It shows that her condition is good, and that run should lead her into this next race nicely,” the trainer said. Jockey Tom Marquand is back on another visit to Japan and takes the ride on Scintillation.

Costa Bonita: Another runner coming into the race from a run in the Grade 2 Ireland Trophy Fuchu Himba Stakes, the 5-year-old mare was unable to keep things up to the finish in that race, but she ran a lot better than her eleventh-place finish might suggest. Trainer Yoshiaki Sugiyama also believes she can do better: “She matched up quite well with the good horses in her last race, but the pace didn’t really suit her, and although she got a handy position and found a good rhythm, it became difficult for her to sustain things at the end of the race. I think the distance this time will be better for her.” Jockey Kohei Matsuyama will once again ride Costa Bonita, and he’s looking for just his sixth JRA Grade 1 win, and his first since winning the Champions Cup in 2021 on T O Keynes. He brought up his 100th JRA win of the year last weekend.
Another horse to note is Saliera, a 5-year-old mare trained by Sakae Kunieda. Although unplaced in her last two starts, she was sixth in last year’s Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup, and jockey Ryan Moore returns to Japan this week and will take the ride on Saliera.

Prognosis failed to meet expectations as the Group 1 W. S. Cox Plate field favorite Saturday and was unable to match the performance of Japan’s last favorite in the race - Lys Gracieux, who won in 2019.

Nonetheless, Prognosis did save face in second place, though he came up a full 8 lengths short of the mouth-dropping, record-setting performance by 6-year-old mare Via Sistina. It was a performance even more stupendous considering she had dumped her rider earlier in the week and circled the track three times on her own.

On Saturday, Oct. 26, running under 57 kg (2 kg lighter than Prognosis), with James McDonald up, there was no stopping the Irish-bred daughter of Fastnet Rock.

Via Sistina smashed the record set by superstar Winx in 2017 by nearly 2 seconds with a time of 2 minutes 1.07 seconds over the Moonee Valley 2,040 meters of turf rated a “Good 3.”

Broadsiding, a 3-year-old Too Darn Hot colt ridden by Jamie Kah and racing under only 49.5 kg, finished in third place 2 lengths behind Prognosis.

Under way shortly after 5 p.m. (local time) Saturday, the field of nine was led by Royal Patronage on the inside, with the No. 2 pick Pride of Jenni two out and quickly moving to the top of the field by the first bend.

Prognosis shadowed the leader on her inside, then as the field strung out, moved to her outside as she began to drop back on the rail and eventually finish only one of the rear.

Meanwhile, the race fourth pick Via Sistina was looking like a runaway locomotive moving up on the outside. And, with an incredible burst of speed, she gained the front before the field straightened into the stretch and, from there, the race was a one-horse affair.

Prognosis, a son of Deep Impact and a highly consistent runner and winner of three G2s in Japan, has yet to land a top-level competition. He’s come very close. In Grade 1 events and adding his Cox Plate result, Prognosis now has third seconds (two in back-to-back QE2s in Hong Kong, one third (last year’s Tenno Sho (Autumn)) and a fifth in the Hong Kong Cup last year. “There’s always another horse in front of him,” said trainer Mitsumasa Nakauchida. “There was Romantic Warrior (in both the 2023 and 2024 QE2), and this time Via Sistina.”

"It's too bad he couldn’t live up to his billing as the favorite,” the Ritto-based trainer said, “but he was able to secure second place. I think the gate practice under Damian Lane that he’d been getting since we arrived in Australia really helped.

“He broke very nicely and he was able to race from a much more forward position than I had imagined he would.

“I think things unfolded ideally for him. He quickened as he usually does and he held off the others solidly. I think the winner was simply a lot stronger than we’d thought.”

Lane, who had ridden Lys Gracieux in the 2019 Cox Plate, agreed that the winner this year was something of a monster. Prognosis, he said, “started very nicely and got a position closer to the front than I’d imagined he would.

“Under way he raced at a very nice rhythm and gave it everything he had.

“But, the horse that won today was just too strong. When she came up on our outside heading into the straight there was no way we could keep up.”

Nakauchida indicated that Prognosis would not likely be sticking around to participate in the Victoria Racing Club’s Champion Stakes, a Group 1 over 2,000 meters at Flemington and held this year on Nov. 9, the last day of the Melbourne Cup Carnival.

“I wouldn’t think so. I’m sure he’s tired. He had a hard race,” Nakauchida said. “He’s spent one month here already preparing for this race to be 100 percent. We didn’t come here for 70 percent or 80 percent, we came here for 100 percent.”

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The 6-year-old Prognosis was only the fourth horse from Japan to take part in the Cox Plate since Japan’s first hopeful Tosen Dandy participated in 2005. In addition to Lys Gracieux, Kluger also ran in 2019. Prognosis’s second place was the second-best result for Japan in the race.

Second favorite Do Deuce registered his fourth G1 title by claiming this year’s Tenno Sho (Autumn) following his victories in the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes (1,600m) in 2021, the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby, 2,400m) in 2022 and the Arima Kinen (2,500m) in 2023, and became the seventh horse in JRA history to win G1 races for four consecutive years. The five-year-old bay bounced back from two unsuccessful starts in spring and will probably head to the Japan Cup (G1, 2,400m) on November 24 and the Arima Kinen on December 22 before capping off his racing career at the end of this season. This win marked trainer Yasuo Tomomichi’s 20th JRA-G1 title following this year’s Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) with Justin Milano and jockey Yutaka Take’s 82nd JRA-G1 title following last year’s Arima Kinen with this horse. Having won this race with Super Creek (1989), Air Groove (1997), Special Week (1999), Meisho Samson (2007), Vodka (2008) and Kitasan Black (2017) in the past, this win also marked Take’s seventh Tenno Sho (Autumn) title, tying him with Takayoshi Yasuda for most wins in this autumn edition’s race.

Breaking smoothly from stall seven, Do Deuce eased back to settle second from last. The son of Heart’s Cry turned the last two corners wide and steered further to the outside after entering the lane to make bid. Though still second from last at the 400-meter pole, the bay unleashed an explosive turn of speed, passing his rivals one by one with the fastest finishing speed in the field, to overtake the front just before the wire for a 1-1/4-length victory.

“I wanted to show the true ability and strength of Do Deuce today, so I was really happy when he was able to display his usual powerful kick in the last stretch and crossed the wire first. The pace was not very fast and I was relying on his strong finishing speed, so I didn’t want to make any unnecessary moves in the first half of the race and settled him second from last,” commented Yutaka Take.

Ninth pick and 2023 Tokyo Yushun champion Tastiera settled around fourth between horses, slightly angled out rounding the last corners, further switched to the outside 300 meters out and, while no match for the winner, passed the front runners in the last 200 meters to secure the runner-up seat by half a length.

Eighth choice Ho O Biscuits set a slightly slow pace, sustained the bid before overtaken by the top two finishers just before the wire and showed tenacity to hold off the late chargers by a neck for a well-deserved third.

Race favorite Liberty Island broke smoothly from the outer stall, traveled around fourth and entered the lane in good striking position, but the fillies’ Triple Crown champion was used up in the last 200 meters and finished 13th.

Other Horses:
4th: (11) Justin Palace—positioned around 11th, struggled to find clear path, quickened between horses in last 300m
5th: (2) Matenro Sky—saved ground around 5th, ran gamely until 100m out
6th: (1) Bellagio Opera—chased leaders around 3rd on rails, outrun in last 50m
7th: (6) Sol Oriens—ran around 8th, showed effort but needed more
8th: (14) Lebensstil—settled wide around 11th, unable to reach contention
9th: (3) Stella Veloce—sat around 8th, ran willingly at stretch, was checked 100m out
10th: (15) Nishino Revenant—trailed in rear, passed tired rivals with 2nd fastest late kick
11th: (5) North Bridge—hugged rails in 13th, showed effort but met traffic in last 100m
12th: (8) King’s Palace—traveled wide around 8th, lacked needed kick at stretch
14th: (10) Danon Beluga—raced wide around 6th, was checked 300m out, failed to respond
15th: (13) Schilthorn—tracked leader in 2nd, faded after 200m pole