Japan Horse Racing Tips-Umanity.jp

So close, yet so far.

Forever Young missed out on history by a whisker as the Japanese colt placed third after an epic photo finish in the 150th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Down on Saturday (May 4).

The $5 million (USD) race, a record purse for the Derby, came down to a three-way bobbing of the heads seized by Mystik Dan by a nose over Sierra Leone, the most expensive horse in the field of 20 at $2.3 million.

The Yoshito Yahagi-trained Forever Young - who went off as the second betting favorite - was another nose back in third in the tightest finish since 1947, and certainly one of the most dramatic in the race’s history.

Forever Young, by Grade 1 Dubai Turf winner Real Steel out of Forever Darling, produced the best result ever by a Japanese horse at the Derby, bettering Master Fencer in 2019 and Derma Sotogake last year who both finished sixth. Since Ski Captain in 1995, six horses from Japan have taken their shot in the Run for the Roses.

The other JRA entry, T O Password trained by Daisuke Takayanagi, also impressed, closing out the 2,000-meter race hard to come in fifth.

The look and words of esteemed eight-time overseas G1 winner Yahagi said it all about how close they were to rewriting the record books in one of the most revered races in the world. It was the first defeat for Forever Young in six career starts.

“I just have one thing to say - frustration,” said Yahagi, who was visibly shaken after his horse flirted with history. “The horse was fantastic. He ran his heart out. To run the way he did in conditions that are far from easy for a Japanese horse, I simply tip my hat.

“But as close as we got, I really wanted to see us win. We must take our lessons from this and I am absolutely convinced this is something we can build on. I hope we can make him become the best racehorse on the planet. To all those who supported us, I just want to offer my apologies for coming up so short.”

Jockey Ryusei Sakai was equally despondent by the stinging outcome not only for Team Yahagi but all of Japanese racing.

“It hurts, full stop. I’m grateful I had the opportunity to ride in this amazing race. The horse was in great condition and seeing how close we were, I would have liked to win it,” he said.

The Kentucky Derby got under way with long shots Track Phantom and Just Steel pacing the early going. Forever Young, leaving from the No. 11 stall with the Kazushi Kimura-ridden T O Password to his outside, stumbled off the blocks. The Japanese pair traveled towards the back.

Rounding for home in front of the largest crowd at Churchill Downs since 2018 of 156,710, Sakai pushed Forever Young on the outside with Sierra Leone right next to him. Mystik Dan slipped through along the rail where he would find a clear path towards the wire.

But Forever Young and Sierra Leone didn’t make it easy for him, charging towards the line with a fury to force the photos that took minutes to judge. The winning time was 2 minutes, 3.34 seconds.

T O Password, by Copano Rickey out of T O Rachel, took the tape by a distance but Takayanagi appeared to be pleased by the effort from his colt, who only raced for the third time in his promising career.

“If he had a bit more experience, I think it would have led to a better start and positioning during the race, and it showed in the end,” the trainer said. “The plan was to sit somewhere in the middle - though obviously not out in front.

“He was a little worked up before the race but was all right by the time he was in his seat at the paddock. If he can continue to race the way he did today, he should be able to more than perform in Japan going down the road. It was only his third start, he should mature emotionally from hereon.”

Echoing the trainer was Kimura who said:

“The horse gave it everything he had. He was strong down the stretch. When I first worked him, he acted like a kid at times. But he grew up. He didn’t break as he usually does in Japan because of his experience, but he adjusted during the trip and did a good job of chasing, finishing strong. I think we can expect a lot from him if he can build on this.”

In another race featuring a Japanese runner at Churchill Downs over the weekend, T O Saint Denis, also ridden by Sakai and trained by Takayanagi, came in second behind First Mission in the G2 1,700m Alysheba Stakes on Friday.

Starting off five consecutive weeks of top-level JRA action at Tokyo Racecourse, the Grade 1 NHK Mile Cup will be run on Sunday, May 5, to give 3-year-olds their chance of glory over a mile, as opposed to the longer distances of the Grade 1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) and the Grade 1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), both run later on at Tokyo this month.

The Grade 1 NHK Mile Cup was first run in 1996, and it became an international race in 2009. The tough Tokyo mile is a true test for the 3-year-olds, even though some of them have already proved themselves at Hanshin in the Grade 1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) earlier this year, or as 2-year-olds in Grade 1 races also run at Hanshin in 2023. However, conquering the long homestraight at Tokyo is definitely one of the keys to success in this week’s big race.

There are 27 nominations for this year’s NHK Mile Cup, with a maximum field size of 18, so there’s plenty of competition for a place in the final line-up. No geldings are permitted to run, and colts carry 57kg, with a 2kg allowance given to fillies. The race often throws up a winner at a big price, as was the case last year when Champagne Color won as the ninth favorite. Just two first favorites have won in the last 10 years, with Major Emblem being the last one in 2016. The last filly to win was Aerolithe in 2017. Record time for the race is still held by Danon Chantilly, who won back in 2010 in a time of 1 minute, 31.4 seconds. This year’s winner’s check is JPY 130 million (about USD 900,000).

Two official trial races leading into this week’s feature race have been the Grade 2 New Zealand Trophy, run at Nakayama over a mile in April, and the Grade 3 Arlington Cup, also run over a mile in April, but at Hanshin.

The 29th running of the NHK Mile Cup will be Race 11 on the Sunday card at Tokyo, with a post time of 15:40 local time. Final declarations and the barrier draw will be available later in the week. Here’s a look at some of the runners expected to take on the race:

Ascoli Piceno: The Daiwa Major filly might have lost her unbeaten record last time in the Grade 1 Oka Sho in early April, but there was very little in it at the finish, and she will be back at Tokyo this time, where she won on her debut as a 2-year-old over 1,400 meters. Trainer Yoichi Kuroiwa said: “She handled the transportation over to the track well for the Oka Sho, and despite starting slowly in the race, she quickly recovered to get a good position. She got bumped a little turning for home, but despite this, she still ran on well. She’s recovered from that race without any problems, and we’ve been able to make this next race the target for her.”

Jantar Mantar: The Best Two-Year-Old Colt of 2023 has had two races as a 3-year-old, finishing second in the Grade 3 Kyodo News Hai over 1,800 meters at Tokyo in February, and most recently placing third in the Grade 1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) at Nakayama in April. Trainer Tomokazu Takano commented on the horse: “He wasn’t able to hold off the other two horses in the closing stages last time, and just couldn’t find any more at the end, but I was still satisfied with his third-place finish. He’s a top-class horse with a lot of ability.” Coming back in trip looks ideal for the son of Palace Malice, and Yuga Kawada, who is currently at the top of the jockeys’ table, is expected to take the ride once again.

Bond Girl: The filly has had an interrupted career so far, and it will be interesting to see if she can realize some of her potential here, after having her first run of 2024, which saw her finish second in the Grade 2 New Zealand Trophy at Nakayama. Trainer Takahisa Tezuka said: “She had to miss the Juvenile Fillies last year, so we then thought about going directly to the Oka Sho, but she couldn’t get balloted into that. The New Zealand Trophy became her next race, and despite being off for a while, she put in a good run. The jockey was riding her for the first time, and thought she got into a good rhythm in the race. What’s more, it gained her some valuable prize money to get entered into races from now.” Yutaka Take looks set once again to ride the filly by Daiwa Major.

Noble Roger: It will be just the fourth career start for Noble Roger, and he has two wins and a second to his name up to now. He is coming off a second-place finish to the useful Meisho Tabaru in the Grade 3 Mainichi Hai over 1,800 meters at Hanshin in March, where the ground probably made all the difference. “It was the first time for him to run over 1,800 meters last time, but he was patient throughout the race,” said assistant trainer Sho Tajima. “It made a big difference, with the winner running on the inside, but he showed a lot of power to stay on and finish second.” Noble Roger is an American-bred colt by Palace Malice.

Ecoro Bloom: Sire Daiwa Major looks to be well represented in the race, and Ecoro Bloom would certainly have a chance on his win over a mile in the Grade 2 New Zealand Trophy. That victory impressed his trainer, Yukihiro Kato. “Speaking to the rider last time, he said it was important for the horse to find a good rhythm. Turning for home in his last race, the gap between horses closed on him, but he was able to switch to the outside and regain his speed. It showed that he’s a horse with some ability,” the trainer said. Takeshi Yokoyama rode Ecoro Bloom to that inspiring victory last time, and is expected to ride him again this Sunday.

Danon McKinley: An expensive purchase at the 2022 Select Sale, the colt by Maurice has won three times from his five career starts to date, and got back to winning ways last time, when he finished well to take out the Grade 3 Chunichi Sports Sho Falcon Stakes over 1,400 meters at Chukyo. Comments from assistant trainer Nobuyuki Tashiro were: “It was important for him to get into the flow of the race last time, and in the homestraight he used his turn of foot to good effect. We were also pleased that he could get a result racing left-handed. He’s been working well in the meantime, and mentally things have improved with him.”

Di Speranza: The colt by Rulership is unbeaten over a mile, and has won his last two races, the latest being the Grade 3 Arlington Cup, when he was ridden by Joao Moreira. Assistant trainer Sho Tajima said: “Two starts ago, he was well back in the run, but last time he could get a better early position in the race, so he’s showed us different ways of racing. Switching to the outside in the homestraight last time worked very well, and he’s now won two consecutive races over a mile.”

Strauss: Another colt by Maurice, Strauss has won twice at Tokyo from three starts at the track, even though he didn’t have much luck in running last time, when finishing ninth in the Grade 3 Falcon Stakes. Strauss is trained by Ryo Takei, and the trainer recently commented on the horse: “In the Falcon Stakes, the ground favored the frontrunners on the inside, so instructions were to keep him on the inside. He ran patiently, but couldn’t get a clear run at the end. I thought it was a good step race for him, and since returning to the stable, he’s been his usual self.”

Mention should also go to Gonbade Qabus, a colt trained by Noriyuki Hori, and it will be the horse’s first run as a 3-year-old. The colt by Bricks and Mortar looks set to be ridden by Joao Moreira.

Victory eludes but three from Japan figure large in HK QEII

Despite a team twice the size of last year’s, and runners in all three Grade 1 events, Japan was unable to break Hong Kong’s steely grip on the Sha Tin turf. The home team swept all three of the Group 1 turf events held on Sunday, April 28 in what is known as Champions Day, comprised of the Chairman’s Sprint Prize (1,200 meters), the Champions Mile (1,600) and the QEII Cup (2,000).

Japan’s team of eight, finished the day with a Sprint best 10th place, a Mile best eighth, and saved face and satisfied punters back home with a second- and third-place showing in the QE2.

The week leading to Sunday saw more than 25 cm of rain dumped on Hong Kong and had studious punters checking for swimming form. Race day, however, saw the track recovered to a far-less-frightening rating of “yielding.”

Kicking off the top-level events of the day was the HK$22-million Chairman’s Sprint, the fifth race on a day of 10, with a field of 11 runners that included three raiders from abroad, two from Japan and one from the U.K.

The race was won by Invincible Sage, finishing a length and a half ahead of California Spangle, with Mugen filling out the winning trifecta. The race, yet to be won in four previous attempts by runners from Japan (best result Fine Needle in fourth in 2018) continued to elude. Japan’s 5-year-old Sunrise Ronaldo, 4-3 in his only graded tests to date (both G3s), was no surprise in 10th place amid the top-rate competition, but Mad Cool, with a 2-1 record in Grade 1 sprints in Japan and an eighth in last year’s Hong Kong Sprint, shocked as the last runner over the finish line. Ridden forward after a slow start, the 5-year-old raced wide and without cover for most of the race. Later, a shifted front shoe was discovered as a likely factor in his poor showing.

Sunrise Ronaldo’s Shogo Yasuda said, “We were done in by the talent of the Hong Kong runners.” Though his charge had been “calm and level-headed” Yasuda said he was “going to rethink his preparation from here on.” Rider Damian Lane said, “The pace of the race was too fast for this horse, and the ground was worse than I had imagined.” Ryusei Sakai, who rode Mad Cool to victory in the Grade 1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen at the end of March, said, “He had nothing much left heading in to the homestretch. He didn’t show us his usual racing.” Trainer Manabu Ikezoe, also unaware of the loose shoe at the time, attributed the poor result to the going. “He was in better shape compared to last year’s trip to Hong Kong, but the days of rain had made the going pretty bad and he had a very hard time of it over the final stage.”

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The Champions Mile, also carrying a purse of $HK22 million, saw one runner from Great Britain in addition to three from Japan amid of field numbering 11. Here, the winning streak of legendary Golden Sixty come to a screeching halt, on his fourth bid in the race. The top two spots were claimed by the John Size-trained winner Beauty Eternal and runnerup Red Lion. Voyage Bubble, nominated for the Yasuda Kinen, made third place.

Japan’s three hopefuls (all 4-year-old colts) were bested by Elton Barows in eighth place, with Obamburumai in 10th, Champagne Color in last place.

“The ground took away his speed,” said Elton Barows’ Haruki Sugiyama, while rider Atsuya Nishimura said, “He’d been somewhat lost in the new surroundings on his first trip overseas, But, he did try his best.” Keiji Yoshimura, trainer of the internationally raced Obamburumai, who was bumped shortly after the start, said, “The pace was slower than I’d thought it would be and the ground didn’t suit.” Rider Damian Lane said the colt, third in last year’s NHK Mile Cup, “had tried very hard, but he wasn’t able to show his usual late speed.” Champagne Color, who won the 2023 NHK Mile Cup over yielding turf, was expected by trainer Tsuyoshi Tanaka to fare well on the rain-affected track, but the colt tripped at the break, lost ground, and racing from behind, was unable to make up the distance.

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The $HK28-million QEII Cup also saw only one runner from the U.K. and three from Japan joining seven from Hong Kong. The Cup wrapped up the day’s big events and was won for the third time in a row by the near-invincible Romantic Warrior. Japan shone as well, with all of its three runners able to make the board in a race Japan has claimed five times before. The Mitsumasa Nakauchida-trained, 6-year-old Prognosis had posted 2-5 in his previous bids at Sha Tin, with both races won by Romantic Warrior. This time, Prognosis hit the side of the gate at the jump, lost ground, yet rallied with 1,200 to go, racing wide and without cover. Amazingly, and in a repeat of last year’s placing, the son of Deep Impact managed to pass all but one, and shorten last year’s margin of 2 lengths to a mere neck.

Rider Yuga Kawada said, “He has competed in Hong Kong many times, so he's used to the surroundings. Still, today he broke worse than he normally would. The pace wasn’t very fast so I concentrated on him keeping him well-balanced. The margin was a small one, but (Romantic Warrior) has always won, so I really, really wanted this horse to win. Still, he really gave it his all today."

G2 winner North Bridge, a 6-year-old son of Maurice (the only Japan runner to win the Champions Mile) went into the race with a lackluster 11-8-10 in his previous G1 bids. Partnered with Yasunari Iwata, though North Bridge also had a less-than-smooth start, he managed to make the money with a G1-personal-best third place. The 8-year-old Hishi Iguazu, third in last year’s Hong Kong Cup and runnerup in the same in 2021, was unable to get a clear run amid traffic in the straight and finished in fifth place under Damian Lane.

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This year, all three of the Hong Kong Grade 1s were open to betting in Japan and reeled in over 2.97 billion yen, far surpassing the 1.63 billion yen garnered by the Japan Racing Association from wagering on only two of the races last year.

Six-year-old T O Royal claimed this year’s Tenno Sho (Spring) and marked his first G1 title while extending his winning streak to three. Debuting in December 2020 of his two-year-old season, he captured his first graded title in the Diamond Stakes (G3, 3,400m) in February 2022 and finished third in the following Tenno Sho (Spring). After a disappointing 14th in the Japan Cup (G1, 2,400m) the same year, he was sidelined for almost a year due to a fracture in his right hind leg. Returning to racing last November, the son of Leontes came into this race, winning both his two starts this year, the Diamond Stakes and the Hanshin Daishoten (G2, 3,000m). Trainer Inao Okada, who opened his yard in 2003, claimed his ninth graded win and first G1 title in JRA, while jockey Yuji Hishida also registered his first G1 victory and eighth grade-race title in his 13th season.

Breaking sharply from stall 14, T O Royal settled around fourth from the frontrunner while eyeing Durezza on the inside. Stalking the second favorite for most of the trip, the Leontes bay steered to the outside in the final two corners to make bid, passing Durezza and other frontrunners one by one, and finally nailed the leader at the top of the homestretch. While Durezza lost momentum after entering the lane and faded to 15th, T O Royal accelerated strongly with an impressive turn of speed and easily pulled away for a two-length victory.

“The horse raced in good rhythm and responded well going downhill after the third corner. So, we were able to turn the last corner comfortably and slip out of the pack with ease. I’m really happy to have won this race because I decided to become a jockey when I saw this race 20 years ago,” commented Yuji Hishida.

Fifth pick Blow the Horn traveled two-wide around 12th, made headway turning the third corner in the second lap wide and launched a tremendous late charge that marked the fastest last three furlongs to pass all his rivals but the winner for a runner-up seat.

Sixth choice Deep Bond, runner-up in the past three years of this race, rallied for the lead and eased back to chase the leaders around third on the rails, near the top two favorites. The seven-year-old brown gradually closed in on the pacesetter, briefly took the lead at the final corner and although surrendering the lead to the winner and being overtaken by the fast-closing runner-up before the wire, showed tenacity to secure third place.

Other Horses:
4th: (17) Smart Phantom—raced around 14th on rails, launched 2nd fastest late charge between horses
5th: (4) Warp Speed—took economic trip around 12th, showed effort but no match for top finishers
6th: (10) Savona—sat inside winner around 5th, sustained the bid until 100m out
7th: (7) Tastiera—saved ground around 9th, gradually made headway, lacked needed kick
8th: (15) Meisho Breguet—trailed in rear, passed tired rivals on inner stretch
9th: (8) Gold Princess—settled around 10th, angled out, responded little
10th: (3) Plume d’Or—hugged rails around 6th, even paced at stretch
11th: (13) Scar Face—traveled 2nd from rear, angled out, unable to reach contention
12th: (1) Saliera—ran behind winner around 6th, circled wide, showed little
13th: (11) Matenro Leo—set pace, faded after final corner
14th: (16) Chuck Nate—positioned in 8th, driven after 3rd corner, failed to respond
16th: (9) Silver Sonic—raced 3-wide around 10th, never fired
Fail to Finish: (18) Hapi—traveled near rear, pulled up at 1st corner due to lameness in his right foreleg
Scratched: (2) Hindu Times—lameness in his left foreleg